金针收藏/华尔街看空美元，美股债有风险\David
作者：365bet登录日期：2025/11/07 浏览：
Image: The United States pursues protectionist trade policies, but is pushed back as a result. Countries have reduced their reliance on the use of the United States dollar.美国最高法院的几位法官质疑特朗普全球关税的合法性，这可能需要退还超过1000亿美元的税款。 Along with a record-breaking government shutdown, the economic downturn will exacerbate fiscal deficits and debt pressures. Major Wall Street banks continued to be bearish on the US dollar, which hurt the performance of US stocks and US bonds.国际货币基金组织还预计美国债务将进一步恶化，债务比率随时超过意大利和希腊。 The Trump administration's shutdown has lasted more than 36 days, the longestg in history. It has a great impact on people's livelihoods and the economy, with the poor suffering. For example, 42 million people who rely on food aid may be "without food",and many states have also entered a state of emergency.副总统万斯警告说，如果关闭持续到11月下旬的感恩节假期旅行季节，空中交通将面临灾难性影响。 The shutdown is not over and the economy will be hurt. Thanksgiving is an important holiday in the United States. The disruption of air transport will inevitably have a significant negative impact on foreign travel and consumption.美国经济受到严重损害。 The US dollar, US debt and US stocks will face a more serious "triple killing" effect at any time.厨房里，特朗普政府却深陷内外交困。政治紧张局势和社会分歧进一步恶化。 The current government shutdown has broken records, and the policy of frequently imposing world tariffs has been challenged by lawsuits. Several justices of the United States Supreme Court have questioned the legality of additional tariffs.当十二月如果炒股不合法，美国政府可能要退还超过1000亿美元的税款，股票、外汇债券、国债都将面临巨大冲击。 Therefore, the return of the United States dollar to the 100 level in recent days is just a dead cat, and it will fall again after the rebound. Indeed, the United States pursued protectionist trade policies, but was sidelined as a result.削减国家对美国市场的依赖和对美元的使用，这最终将削弱美国在全球经济中的地位。 The IMF has warned that the debt ratio of the United States may exceed that of Greece.外资大行报告指出，美国国债规模再创新高，最新超过38万亿美元。 It is estimated that the total debt will exceed 40 trillion United States dollars from the end of this year到明年初。在此环境下，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比下降至40%，各国以实际行动对美元投不信任票。美国债务风险恶化，连国际货币基金组织都警告称，2030年公共债务与国内生产总值（GDP）的比率预计将升至143.4%，债务比率可能超过意大利甚至希腊。目前意大利和希腊的公共债务占GDP的比例分别为137%和152%。事实上，长期以来，全球普遍看空美元。包括摩根士丹利在内的市场人士认为，美国利率将继续下降，并预计美元汇率将继续下跌。摩根士丹利对美元走势非常悲观。今年已下跌近8%的美国汇率指数或跌破89B到明年年底。 This is damaging the prices of the United States dollar, especially the United States Treasury bonds.跌势再次得到体现，10年期和30年期美国国债利率升至4.1%和4.7%的高位。 The flight increases holdings of gold and Chinese stocks.因此，华尔街各大银行建议增持对冲美元贬值的投资产品，比如美元。该行的报告认为，黄金和中国股票是对冲美元风险的最佳投资产品和工具。尽管金价已从近期高位回落，但随着中国取消对零售黄金的优惠附加税减免政策，金价从近4400美元的历史高位拖至4000美元以下，但目前正是趁低买入的好时机。 At the same time, China's level of self-reliance in science and technology continues to impr奥维。技术创新和产业创新让中国科技股势不可挡，吸引了全球资本源源不断的涌入。近期美国股市陷入危机，多家科技巨头股价纷纷下跌。如果美元走软，长期国债利率再次上升，美国股市泡沫可能会破裂，气球可能会来！ 上一篇：交通银行“十五五”期间银行业发展趋势观察/研
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